tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 2h 58m Minneapolis MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:30DL 2946 8h 10m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 8h 13m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 12m Denver DEN 13:39 → BZN 15:27UA 513 8h 47m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 7h 10m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:44 → ORD 07:42UA 1304 1h 28m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 00m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:58 → MSP 20:47DL 2820 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 6h 54m 92% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:09 → BZN 22:11AA 1774 9h 07m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843 1h 16m Chicago ORD 10:18 → BZN 12:57AA 1080 7h 11m 91% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON