Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5208 CLT 22:07 → CHS 23:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1570 CLT 18:00 → CHS 19:09 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5208 PSA	CLT 22:07	CHS 23:24	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
OH 5309 PSA	CLT 10:34	CHS 11:44	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1731 American Flight history →	CLT 08:34	CHS 09:43	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 5222 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 12:18	CHS 13:28	11%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 3117 American Flight history →	CLT 15:37	CHS 16:46	14%	4%	0.7%	59%
AA 3064 American Flight history →	CLT 20:05	CHS 21:19	14%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 1570 American	CLT 18:00	CHS 19:09	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5817 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:10	CHS 08:23	13%	0%	0.0%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON