Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 848 at 10:59 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 848 CLT 10:59 → CLE 12:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3146 CLT 20:44 → CLE 22:21 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 848 American	CLT 10:59	CLE 12:40	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1244 American	CLT 14:20	CLE 15:59	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
OH 5617 PSA	CLT 12:28	CLE 14:06	18%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 2260 American Flight history →	CLT 22:50	CLE 00:29	19%	6%	0.8%	69%
AA 3146 American Flight history →	CLT 20:44	CLE 22:21	27%	8%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON