Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 430 at 09:13 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 430 CLT 09:13 → CVG 10:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest AA 2021 CLT 18:11 → CVG 19:36 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 430 American Flight history →	CLT 09:13	CVG 10:46	10%	3%	0.6%	61%
AA 1533 American	CLT 10:53	CVG 12:19	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 5293 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:07	CVG 17:33	16%	3%	0.7%	75%
AA 626 American Flight history →	CLT 22:30	CVG 23:58	21%	4%	0.6%	67%
AA 2021 American Flight history →	CLT 18:11	CVG 19:36	25%	5%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON