Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5161 CLT 10:33 → DAY 12:04 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5321 CLT 15:57 → DAY 17:29 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5161 PSA	CLT 10:33	DAY 12:04	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5435 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:55	DAY 20:37	13%	8%	0.8%	70%
AA 5174 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:19	DAY 19:59	13%	8%	0.7%	63%
AA 5321 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:57	DAY 17:29	14%	5%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON