Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1963 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1963 CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3156 CLT 17:37 → DEN 19:20 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1963 United Flight history →	CLT 08:40	DEN 10:27	10%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 1328 American Flight history →	CLT 08:19	DEN 09:55	11%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 696 American	CLT 13:15	DEN 14:51	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 792 United	CLT 16:19	DEN 18:11	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3156 American Flight history →	CLT 17:37	DEN 19:20	23%	5%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON