Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3180 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3180 CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2815 CLT 18:05 → DFW 19:51 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3180 American Flight history →	CLT 05:45	DFW 07:35	6%	2%	1.0%	91%
AA 1005 American Flight history →	CLT 07:19	DFW 09:04	8%	2%	0.8%	85%
AA 575 American	CLT 09:14	DFW 11:03	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 2747 American Flight history →	CLT 11:02	DFW 12:47	12%	3%	0.9%	75%
AA 1690 American	CLT 13:09	DFW 14:54	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 9781 American	CLT 14:07	DFW 16:05	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1256 American	CLT 22:07	DFW 23:58	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1709 American Flight history →	CLT 15:04	DFW 16:58	15%	4%	0.9%	80%
F9 3165 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 13:41	DFW 15:25	17%	6%	1.5%	73%
AA 1698 American Flight history →	CLT 19:52	DFW 21:44	20%	6%	1.0%	50%
AA 3209 American	CLT 17:09	DFW 19:00	21%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2815 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	DFW 19:51	23%	6%	0.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON