Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2962 at 10:36 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day


AA 2962 American Flight history →	CLT 10:36	DSM 12:08	9%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 3020 American Flight history →	CLT 18:26	DSM 19:41	23%	5%	0.6%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	6h 33m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	6h 15m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	1h 21m Detroit	DTW 09:03 → DSM 09:52DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 52m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	6h 33m	100%	90%
American Details →	CLT 11:02 → DFW 12:47AA 2747	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:56 → DSM 18:08AA 3930 · flown by Envoy	8h 06m	99%	90%
United Details →	CLT 06:44 → ORD 07:42UA 1304	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 09:20 → DSM 10:40UA 466	4h 56m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 09:21 → DSM 10:37DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	5h 17m	97%	89%
American Details →	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → DSM 00:00 +1AA 4402 · flown by Republic	6h 34m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON