Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1405 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 1405 CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 419 CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1405 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:00	DTW 07:42	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 1639 Delta Flight history →	CLT 09:42	DTW 11:30	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	CLT 13:17	DTW 15:00	8%	2%	0.6%	77%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	CLT 08:15	DTW 10:03	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	CLT 12:30	DTW 14:23	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 1675 Delta	CLT 17:02	DTW 18:49	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1134 American Flight history →	CLT 15:36	DTW 17:26	14%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 419 American Flight history →	CLT 20:46	DTW 22:34	16%	4%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON