Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5262 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:48	ECP 11:32	12%	3%	0.8%	97%
AA 5297 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:47	ECP 17:31	18%	5%	0.7%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → ECP 08:12DL 3048	3h 42m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:16 → ATL 15:31DL 2157	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → ECP 19:20DL 3053	6h 04m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	4h 53m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	3h 47m	96%	89%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:46 → ECP 11:52AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	7h 07m	99%	87%
United Details →	CLT 11:48 → IAH 13:34UA 6236 · flown by Mesa	56m Houston	IAH 14:30 → ECP 16:23UA 4902 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 35m	89%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON