Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 798 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 798 CLT 07:00 → EWR 08:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 997 CLT 18:37 → EWR 20:30 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 798 United Flight history →	CLT 07:00	EWR 08:59	4%	2%	1.3%	90%
YX 3427 Republic	CLT 10:00	EWR 12:20	9%	4%	3.3%	no record
YX 3649 Republic	CLT 11:13	EWR 13:26	13%	5%	3.6%	no record
AA 1697 American Flight history →	CLT 10:50	EWR 12:50	14%	5%	2.1%	87%
YX 3627 Republic	CLT 13:26	EWR 15:39	20%	7%	3.3%	no record
UA 3468 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:52	EWR 20:00	30%	8%	3.2%	68%
AA 2794 American Flight history →	CLT 20:06	EWR 22:12	33%	10%	1.4%	61%
YX 3428 Republic	CLT 15:57	EWR 17:56	34%	9%	3.7%	no record
AA 1330 American Flight history →	CLT 16:22	EWR 18:17	35%	13%	2.1%	66%
AA 997 American	CLT 18:37	EWR 20:30	37%	10%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON