Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1419 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1419 CLT 08:25 → FLL 10:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1148 CLT 15:10 → FLL 17:16 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1419 American Flight history →	CLT 08:25	FLL 10:34	9%	2%	1.0%	92%
AA 2585 American	CLT 10:55	FLL 13:09	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
B6 848 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 06:50	FLL 08:56	10%	4%	1.3%	85%
AA 2945 American Flight history →	CLT 20:01	FLL 22:06	19%	6%	0.9%	75%
AA 321 American Flight history →	CLT 20:42	FLL 22:42	19%	6%	0.9%	68%
AA 2397 American Flight history →	CLT 15:33	FLL 17:45	19%	6%	1.0%	62%
B6 1148 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 15:10	FLL 17:16	26%	9%	1.4%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON