Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4147 CLT 20:08 → GSO 21:02 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3133 CLT 15:38 → GSO 16:34 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4147 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:08	GSO 21:02	13%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 2802 American Flight history →	CLT 22:04	GSO 23:05	14%	5%	0.7%	70%
MQ 3684 Envoy	CLT 17:49	GSO 18:51	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3133 American	CLT 15:38	GSO 16:34	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5793 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:25	GSO 08:30	8%	3%	0.0%	92%
AA 5796 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:12	GSO 12:17	11%	4%	0.0%	89%
AA 5797 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:41	GSO 15:46	18%	7%	0.0%	82%
AA 5789 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	GSO 14:10	21%	8%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON