Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5163 CLT 21:55 → GSP 22:48 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2762 CLT 18:03 → GSP 18:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5163 PSA	CLT 21:55	GSP 22:48	17%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 5524 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:35	GSP 21:30	19%	7%	1.1%	55%
AA 5440 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:50	GSP 16:43	19%	7%	1.0%	70%
AA 2762 American Flight history →	CLT 18:03	GSP 18:55	22%	7%	1.2%	73%
AA 5798 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:16	GSP 08:18	5%	0%	0.0%	95%
AA 5802 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:07	GSP 12:14	6%	0%	0.0%	94%
AA 5799 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:05	GSP 10:12	11%	3%	0.0%	89%
AA 5805 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	GSP 14:07	13%	9%	1.4%	87%
AA 6131 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:40	GSP 15:42	31%	7%	1.6%	69%
AA 5870 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 18:00	GSP 19:02	42%	8%	0.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON