Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 5891 CLT 22:03 → HSV 22:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5019 CLT 12:49 → HSV 13:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5891 Piedmont	CLT 22:03	HSV 22:27	6%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 5810 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 08:43	HSV 09:08	9%	2%	0.9%	75%
PT 6005 Piedmont	CLT 16:26	HSV 16:51	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 5485 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 19:53	HSV 20:21	12%	3%	0.7%	79%
OH 5019 PSA	CLT 12:49	HSV 13:20	13%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON