Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2445 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2445 CLT 08:31 → IAH 10:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2935 CLT 17:51 → IAH 19:35 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2445 American Flight history →	CLT 08:31	IAH 10:15	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 398 American	CLT 12:30	IAH 14:03	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1840 American Flight history →	CLT 20:45	IAH 22:27	19%	6%	0.8%	71%
UA 2690 United	CLT 17:09	IAH 18:55	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2935 American Flight history →	CLT 17:51	IAH 19:35	24%	7%	0.8%	62%
UA 6236 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:48	IAH 13:34	10%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 4020 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 17:00	IAH 18:58	20%	13%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON