Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1410 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 1410 CLT 08:25 → IND 10:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3087 CLT 19:16 → IND 20:58 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1410 American	CLT 08:25	IND 10:09	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1589 American Flight history →	CLT 12:20	IND 14:00	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 1033 American Flight history →	CLT 22:10	IND 23:58	16%	4%	0.6%	75%
AA 1399 American	CLT 16:17	IND 17:58	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3087 American Flight history →	CLT 19:16	IND 20:58	20%	5%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON