Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 08:40, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Jackson on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 1175 American Flight history →	CLT 09:00	JAC 11:23	9%	3%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 28m Denver	DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537	8h 45m	99%	87%
United Details →	CLT 06:45 → ORD 07:43UA 1304	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 09:24 → JAC 11:33UA 2176	6h 48m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:16 → ATL 15:31DL 2157	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 18:10 → JAC 20:04DL 315	7h 48m	98%	82%
American Details →	CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 13:28 → JAC 16:01AA 2611	8h 19m	98%	80%
American Details →	CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843	47m Chicago	ORD 09:49 → JAC 12:23AA 1898	6h 37m	84%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON