Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2470 CLT 10:42 → LAS 12:29 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1862 CLT 20:13 → LAS 21:51 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2470 American Flight history →	CLT 10:42	LAS 12:29	11%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 2981 American Flight history →	CLT 08:23	LAS 10:05	11%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 750 American Flight history →	CLT 14:25	LAS 16:03	19%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 596 American Flight history →	CLT 18:30	LAS 20:17	19%	6%	0.7%	69%
AA 1862 American	CLT 20:13	LAS 21:51	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	55m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 44m	90%	80%
American Details →	CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678	53m Phoenix	PHX 09:58 → LAS 11:18AA 2109	6h 37m	86%	77%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:16 → ATL 15:31DL 2157	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711	6h 36m	88%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON