Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 5766 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–50%.

Safest bet that day YX 5766 CLT 06:58 → LGA 09:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3134 CLT 17:43 → LGA 19:44 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5766 Republic	CLT 06:58	LGA 09:00	9%	3%	2.1%	no record
AA 2036 American Flight history →	CLT 07:15	LGA 09:12	12%	3%	2.0%	82%
AA 1150 American Flight history →	CLT 09:20	LGA 11:15	18%	5%	2.1%	77%
YX 5719 Republic	CLT 12:24	LGA 14:22	24%	12%	5.1%	no record
AA 2268 American	CLT 11:51	LGA 13:48	26%	11%	5.1%	no record
AA 2031 American Flight history →	CLT 21:43	LGA 23:37	31%	10%	1.3%	82%worse than usual
AA 2927 American	CLT 13:06	LGA 14:59	36%	17%	5.1%	no record
AA 1942 American Flight history →	CLT 15:17	LGA 17:15	41%	18%	2.6%	65%
AA 1060 American Flight history →	CLT 17:38	LGA 19:41	48%	21%	1.9%	62%worse than usual
F9 3134 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 17:43	LGA 19:44	50%	25%	5.2%	56%
DL 5068 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:36	LGA 11:32	17%	9%	6.5%	83%
DL 5051 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:50	LGA 13:50	23%	7%	6.7%	77%
DL 5046 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:37	LGA 16:40	31%	17%	13.6%	69%
DL 5047 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:12	LGA 22:21	33%	18%	10.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON