Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1576 at 10:54 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 1576 CLT 10:54 → MCO 12:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1682 CLT 16:52 → MCO 18:39 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1576 American	CLT 10:54	MCO 12:47	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2170 American Flight history →	CLT 08:17	MCO 10:01	9%	2%	0.7%	78%
F9 1759 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 09:31	MCO 11:20	11%	3%	1.2%	69%
AA 2117 American Flight history →	CLT 12:29	MCO 14:17	12%	3%	0.8%	81%
F9 4093 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 21:38	MCO 23:25	15%	5%	1.3%	53%
AA 1611 American	CLT 14:19	MCO 16:08	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1879 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	MCO 00:17	16%	4%	0.8%	64%
AA 1783 American Flight history →	CLT 19:05	MCO 21:00	19%	6%	0.9%	46%
AA 612 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	MCO 20:01	19%	6%	0.8%	54%
AA 3200 American Flight history →	CLT 20:37	MCO 22:15	20%	6%	0.8%	61%
AA 1682 American Flight history →	CLT 16:52	MCO 18:39	21%	5%	0.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON