Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2384 CLT 08:49 → MDT 10:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6073 CLT 18:06 → MDT 19:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2384 American	CLT 08:49	MDT 10:29	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
PT 5931 Piedmont	CLT 10:52	MDT 12:32	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5948 Piedmont	CLT 12:16	MDT 13:56	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5225 PSA	CLT 21:42	MDT 23:25	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
PT 6120 Piedmont	CLT 16:07	MDT 17:47	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5841 Piedmont	CLT 14:09	MDT 15:49	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 6073 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 18:06	MDT 19:46	15%	5%	0.8%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON