Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1790 at 10:08 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 1790 CLT 10:08 → MEM 10:59 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest OH 5398 CLT 16:18 → MEM 17:06 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1790 American Flight history →	CLT 10:08	MEM 10:59	9%	2%	0.6%	96%
AA 2852 American	CLT 13:49	MEM 14:45	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1372 American Flight history →	CLT 21:53	MEM 22:44	18%	4%	0.6%	72%
AA 1641 American Flight history →	CLT 20:00	MEM 20:51	20%	4%	0.6%	72%
OH 5398 PSA	CLT 16:18	MEM 17:06	21%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON