Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 770 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 770 CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 400 CLT 18:37 → MIA 20:48 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 770 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	MIA 09:12	7%	2%	0.8%	83%
AA 969 American Flight history →	CLT 11:02	MIA 13:11	10%	2%	0.8%	88%
AA 3184 American Flight history →	CLT 09:13	MIA 11:24	11%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 1198 American	CLT 13:35	MIA 15:46	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3068 American Flight history →	CLT 22:00	MIA 00:10	18%	6%	1.1%	66%
AA 565 American	CLT 19:39	MIA 21:50	23%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 3011 American	CLT 16:27	MIA 18:31	24%	7%	0.9%	no record
F9 3699 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 15:06	MIA 17:17	27%	10%	2.1%	66%
AA 400 American Flight history →	CLT 18:37	MIA 20:48	27%	9%	1.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON