Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2443 American	CLT 12:29	MSN 13:47	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1426 American Flight history →	CLT 19:27	MSN 20:41	20%	6%	0.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	5h 52m	99%	91%
American Details →	CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 13:41 → MSN 14:41AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	5h 59m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 13:17 → DTW 15:00DL 2684	1h 57m Detroit	DTW 16:57 → MSN 17:20DL 5245 · flown by Endeavor	5h 03m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	2h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	98%	88%
American Details →	CLT 14:02 → ORD 14:02AA 2530	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 17:22 → MSN 18:44AA 3953 · flown by Envoy	5h 42m	99%	88%
American Details →	CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 11:38 → MSN 12:44AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	99%	87%
American Details →	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 22:59 → MSN 23:59AA 4045 · flown by Envoy	6h 33m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:40 → BOS 12:06DL 5626 · flown by Republic	1h 02m Boston	BOS 13:08 → MSN 15:03DL 5603 · flown by Republic	6h 23m	95%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON