Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2491 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2491 CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2176 CLT 19:06 → MSP 20:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2491 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:20	MSP 07:59	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 1912 Delta	CLT 11:32	MSP 13:13	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2972 American	CLT 08:49	MSP 10:40	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1671 American	CLT 12:22	MSP 14:10	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2819 Delta Flight history →	CLT 14:57	MSP 16:44	12%	4%	0.7%	75%
DL 2820 Delta Flight history →	CLT 18:58	MSP 20:47	15%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 2176 American Flight history →	CLT 19:06	MSP 20:54	17%	6%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON