Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2287 CLT 08:23 → MSY 09:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 608 CLT 20:06 → MSY 21:08 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2287 American Flight history →	CLT 08:23	MSY 09:25	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 2030 American	CLT 12:58	MSY 14:05	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2615 American Flight history →	CLT 16:14	MSY 17:27	14%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 608 American Flight history →	CLT 20:06	MSY 21:08	20%	4%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON