Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 11–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5081 CLT 21:45 → MYR 22:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1417 CLT 17:54 → MYR 19:01 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5081 PSA	CLT 21:45	MYR 22:55	11%	4%	1.2%	no record
OH 5290 PSA	CLT 08:41	MYR 09:51	11%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 2431 American Flight history →	CLT 10:06	MYR 11:14	11%	3%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
OH 5188 PSA	CLT 12:15	MYR 13:25	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 1085 American Flight history →	CLT 19:56	MYR 21:04	19%	6%	0.8%	70%
AA 2943 American Flight history →	CLT 16:00	MYR 17:11	19%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 1417 American Flight history →	CLT 17:54	MYR 19:01	21%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 5878 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:30	MYR 08:45	0%	0%	0.0%	100%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON