Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2908 at 11:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2908 CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2530 CLT 14:02 → ORD 14:02 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2908 American Flight history →	CLT 11:01	ORD 12:19	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 3442 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 13:06	ORD 14:30	8%	2%	0.6%	74%
AA 2843 American Flight history →	CLT 07:46	ORD 09:02	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 1038 American Flight history →	CLT 09:42	ORD 11:00	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 1304 United Flight history →	CLT 06:44	ORD 07:42	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 3491 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 15:10	ORD 16:35	10%	3%	0.6%	95%
OO 9913 SkyWest	CLT 12:26	ORD 13:36	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2423 American	CLT 14:33	ORD 15:44	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 627 American Flight history →	CLT 22:40	ORD 23:47	11%	3%	0.6%	61%
YX 3421 Republic	CLT 17:43	ORD 19:03	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 536 American Flight history →	CLT 16:16	ORD 17:39	13%	5%	0.7%	68%
AA 815 American Flight history →	CLT 21:09	ORD 22:21	14%	3%	0.6%	55%
AA 2488 American Flight history →	CLT 18:26	ORD 19:51	19%	5%	0.7%	47%
AA 2530 American Flight history →	CLT 14:02	ORD 14:02	20%	3%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON