Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2072 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2072 CLT 08:26 → ORF 09:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 5622 CLT 20:24 → ORF 21:45 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2072 American Flight history →	CLT 08:26	ORF 09:49	10%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 2911 American Flight history →	CLT 12:51	ORF 14:14	11%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 1323 American Flight history →	CLT 13:50	ORF 15:14	12%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2674 American Flight history →	CLT 22:25	ORF 23:41	14%	4%	0.7%	70%
AA 2651 American	CLT 15:23	ORF 16:46	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2519 American Flight history →	CLT 17:34	ORF 19:00	18%	5%	0.7%	46%
AA 5622 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:24	ORF 21:45	20%	5%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON