Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1838 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1838 CLT 05:55 → PHL 07:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest F9 1328 CLT 17:41 → PHL 19:34 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1838 American Flight history →	CLT 05:55	PHL 07:39	6%	3%	0.8%	70%
AA 2565 American	CLT 09:20	PHL 11:10	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3325 American	CLT 08:28	PHL 10:15	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2498 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	PHL 12:43	10%	3%	0.8%	79%
AA 1827 American	CLT 21:52	PHL 23:41	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2573 American Flight history →	CLT 13:02	PHL 14:50	14%	4%	1.0%	76%
AA 423 American Flight history →	CLT 18:07	PHL 20:06	16%	7%	0.9%	66%
AA 864 American Flight history →	CLT 16:46	PHL 18:35	18%	6%	0.9%	70%
F9 1328 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 17:41	PHL 19:34	25%	10%	1.4%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON