Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2310 CLT 08:05 → PIT 09:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2676 CLT 19:07 → PIT 20:41 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2310 American Flight history →	CLT 08:05	PIT 09:30	7%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 1736 American	CLT 12:24	PIT 13:59	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1962 American Flight history →	CLT 22:47	PIT 00:16	13%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 2307 American Flight history →	CLT 15:46	PIT 17:19	16%	5%	0.7%	75%
AA 2676 American Flight history →	CLT 19:07	PIT 20:41	16%	5%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON