Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2476 CLT 10:54 → PNS 11:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5038 CLT 16:37 → PNS 17:20 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2476 American	CLT 10:54	PNS 11:44	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3131 American Flight history →	CLT 21:38	PNS 22:25	19%	5%	0.7%	74%
OH 5038 PSA	CLT 16:37	PNS 17:20	20%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON