tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1744 at 10:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1744 American CLT 10:07 PWM 12:37 8% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 2120 American Flight history → CLT 20:19 PWM 22:36 19% 5% 0.7% 45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLT 07:00 → EWR 08:59UA 798 3h 00m Newark EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic 6h 25m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405 2h 18m Detroit DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426 5h 55m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → CLT 09:42 → DTW 11:30DL 1639 2h 35m Detroit DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821 6h 19m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150 3h 26m New York LGA 14:41 → PWM 16:06AA 2700 6h 46m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479 7h 30m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038 2h 03m Chicago ORD 13:03 → PWM 16:42AA 4741 · flown by Republic 7h 00m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573 3h 16m Philadelphia PHL 18:06 → PWM 19:53AA 1889 6h 51m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:44 → ORD 07:42UA 1304 3h 18m Chicago ORD 11:00 → PWM 14:31UA 2804 7h 47m 100% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLT 10:01 → JFK 11:59DL 5052 · flown by Endeavor 46m New York JFK 12:45 → PWM 14:19DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor 4h 18m 70% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON