Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OH 5211 at 11:01, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5211 PSA	CLT 11:01	RAP 12:27	8%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 06:44 → ORD 07:42UA 1304	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → RAP 10:23UA 2050	5h 39m	100%	92%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → RAP 21:31AA 3567 · flown by Envoy	8h 27m	99%	91%
American Details →	CLT 11:02 → DFW 12:46AA 2747	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:56 → RAP 16:30AA 3532 · flown by Envoy	7h 28m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 09:33 → RAP 10:18DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 18:58 → MSP 20:47DL 2820	58m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → RAP 22:26DL 3714 · flown by SkyWest	5h 28m	86%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON