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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1753 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1753 CLT 07:20 → RDU 08:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3178 CLT 20:05 → RDU 21:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time
Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1753 American CLT 07:20 RDU 08:21 8% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 1768 American CLT 09:20 RDU 10:28 9% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 2688 American Flight history → CLT 11:05 RDU 12:13 10% 2% 0.6% 85%
AA 1897 American Flight history → CLT 11:59 RDU 13:04 10% 3% 0.6% 86%
AA 2704 American Flight history → CLT 13:57 RDU 15:01 13% 4% 0.6% 74%
AA 1894 American Flight history → CLT 15:51 RDU 16:56 16% 4% 0.6% 77%
AA 1904 American Flight history → CLT 17:56 RDU 18:58 20% 4% 0.7% 74%
AA 494 American Flight history → CLT 21:48 RDU 22:53 20% 5% 0.6% 74%
AA 3178 American Flight history → CLT 20:05 RDU 21:12 22% 6% 0.6% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON