Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1775 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 1775 CLT 08:26 → RIC 09:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2239 CLT 20:38 → RIC 21:59 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1775 American	CLT 08:26	RIC 09:44	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5119 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:48	RIC 12:11	8%	2%	0.7%	100%
OH 5505 PSA	CLT 14:23	RIC 15:43	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5144 PSA	CLT 12:54	RIC 14:16	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1757 American	CLT 15:25	RIC 16:46	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 993 American Flight history →	CLT 21:36	RIC 22:50	15%	4%	0.6%	74%
AA 1909 American Flight history →	CLT 17:33	RIC 18:55	18%	5%	0.7%	77%
AA 2239 American	CLT 20:38	RIC 21:59	20%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON