Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1781 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1781 CLT 08:24 → RSW 10:34 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1176 CLT 20:00 → RSW 22:06 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1781 American	CLT 08:24	RSW 10:34	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 2018 American Flight history →	CLT 11:59	RSW 14:08	13%	4%	1.3%	76%
AA 1176 American Flight history →	CLT 20:00	RSW 22:06	25%	8%	2.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON