Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2100 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2100 CLT 07:02 → SAN 09:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 562 CLT 16:20 → SAN 18:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2100 American	CLT 07:02	SAN 09:11	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 466 American Flight history →	CLT 11:15	SAN 13:05	14%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 562 American Flight history →	CLT 16:20	SAN 18:20	24%	5%	0.6%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26DL 725	6h 56m	98%	88%
American Details →	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	1h 16m Phoenix	PHX 14:12 → SAN 15:36AA 1951	6h 59m	94%	78%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	48m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	7h 01m	91%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON