Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5145 CLT 10:24 → SDF 11:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2923 CLT 17:55 → SDF 19:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:24	SDF 11:52	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
OH 5296 PSA	CLT 12:38	SDF 14:06	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 671 American Flight history →	CLT 23:02	SDF 00:34	11%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 1359 American	CLT 15:45	SDF 17:13	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2923 American	CLT 17:55	SDF 19:23	15%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON