Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 783 at 11:03, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 783 American Flight history →	CLT 11:03	SJU 14:50	11%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	8h 02m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946	8h 38m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:16 → ATL 15:31DL 2157	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861	8h 14m	99%	88%
American Details →	CLT 05:55 → PHL 07:39AA 1838	1h 41m Philadelphia	PHL 09:20 → SJU 13:33AA 614	7h 38m	98%	86%
American Details →	CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770	1h 53m Miami	MIA 11:05 → SJU 13:50AA 1613	6h 45m	99%	84%
United Details →	CLT 06:00 → IAD 07:29UA 6279 · flown by Mesa	1h 05m Dulles	IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021	6h 34m	94%	84%
United Details →	CLT 06:44 → ORD 07:42UA 1304	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996	8h 00m	95%	83%
United Details →	CLT 11:48 → IAH 13:34UA 6236 · flown by Mesa	1h 29m Houston	IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701	8h 50m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON