tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:44, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:44 → ORD 07:42UA 1304 1h 22m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 07m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 30m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 49m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:19 → DFW 09:04AA 1005 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:39 → SMF 13:46AA 2078 9h 27m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843 2h 47m Chicago ORD 11:49 → SMF 14:34AA 1906 9h 48m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 08m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:11UA 662 9h 31m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → CLT 15:10 → ORD 16:35UA 3491 · flown by Republic 3h 23m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SMF 22:42UA 1828 10h 32m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → CLT 13:02 → PHX 14:33AA 1044 3h 36m Phoenix PHX 18:09 → SMF 20:28AA 464 10h 26m 100% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON