Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:01, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 358 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	SNA 20:06	19%	3%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986	3h 11m Phoenix	PHX 14:15 → SNA 15:45AA 2463	9h 04m	99%	87%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	2h 58m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707	9h 17m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857	8h 05m	98%	87%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:43 → SNA 11:03AA 1939	8h 18m	98%	86%
American Details →	CLT 07:19 → DFW 09:04AA 1005	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:22 → SNA 12:45AA 1933	8h 26m	100%	86%
United Details →	CLT 15:10 → ORD 16:35UA 3491 · flown by Republic	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308	10h 09m	100%	86%
American Details →	CLT 11:02 → DFW 12:47AA 2747	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:10 → SNA 17:33AA 3223	9h 31m	99%	85%
American Details →	CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 11:56 → SNA 14:27AA 1916	9h 41m	100%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON