Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1452 American Flight history →	CLT 10:27	SRQ 12:29	17%	5%	1.8%	75%
AA 2604 American Flight history →	CLT 19:12	SRQ 21:07	22%	6%	2.1%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196	4h 22m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:16 → ATL 15:31DL 2157	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:55DL 3109	5h 39m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → SRQ 12:27DL 3104	4h 26m	97%	86%
United Details →	CLT 06:45 → ORD 07:43UA 1304	3h 27m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	8h 27m	100%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 18:37 → MIA 20:48AA 400	1h 08m Miami	MIA 21:56 → SRQ 23:05AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	4h 28m	72%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON