Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1975 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1975 CLT 08:24 → TPA 10:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3051 CLT 17:58 → TPA 19:43 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1975 American	CLT 08:24	TPA 10:21	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 436 American Flight history →	CLT 10:35	TPA 12:30	10%	2%	0.8%	83%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	CLT 12:31	TPA 14:24	12%	3%	0.8%	80%
AA 1982 American	CLT 14:02	TPA 15:52	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1773 American Flight history →	CLT 21:51	TPA 23:42	18%	5%	0.7%	64%
AA 545 American	CLT 15:29	TPA 17:25	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2022 American Flight history →	CLT 20:16	TPA 21:59	21%	6%	0.8%	68%
AA 3051 American	CLT 17:58	TPA 19:43	22%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON