Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OH 5041 at 11:01, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5041 PSA	CLT 11:01	TVC 13:14	10%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 34m	98%	90%
American Details →	CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 12:20 → TVC 14:36AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	100%	81%
United Details →	CLT 15:10 → ORD 16:35UA 3491 · flown by Republic	1h 49m Chicago	ORD 18:24 → TVC 20:32UA 677	5h 22m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON