Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5069 CLT 11:51 → VPS 12:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2197 CLT 17:14 → VPS 17:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5069 PSA	CLT 11:51	VPS 12:35	9%	3%	1.3%	no record
OH 5077 PSA	CLT 15:29	VPS 16:13	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 2197 American Flight history →	CLT 17:14	VPS 17:55	15%	4%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON