Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3206 CMH 06:09 → CLT 07:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1120 CMH 18:34 → CLT 20:01 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3206 American Flight history →	CMH 06:09	CLT 07:39	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 3217 American Flight history →	CMH 08:03	CLT 09:40	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 2180 American	CMH 12:36	CLT 14:04	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2236 American	CMH 14:42	CLT 16:10	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1120 American	CMH 18:34	CLT 20:01	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON