Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4627 CMH 09:12 → DCA 10:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2489 CMH 13:45 → DCA 15:09 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4627 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:12	DCA 10:53	5%	2%	0.6%	80%
AA 3861 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:04	DCA 07:35	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 12:36	DCA 14:15	10%	3%	0.6%	70%
YX 4777 Republic	CMH 15:59	DCA 17:36	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4398 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 19:12	DCA 20:53	13%	4%	0.6%	73%
WN 2489 Southwest	CMH 13:45	DCA 15:09	14%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON