Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1167 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1167 CMH 06:36 → DEN 07:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1693 CMH 16:47 → DEN 18:03 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1167 Southwest	CMH 06:36	DEN 07:47	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 728 United Flight history →	CMH 09:00	DEN 10:14	13%	3%	0.7%	86%
WN 1169 Southwest	CMH 18:41	DEN 19:55	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1389 United Flight history →	CMH 17:05	DEN 18:31	17%	4%	0.6%	80%
F9 1693 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 16:47	DEN 18:03	22%	5%	1.2%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON